A New Crisis in an Old Conflict: Pakistan’s Fragile Geopolitical Situation

Intro
Following a recent terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22, 2025, approximately 28 Hindu tourists were killed and 20 others were injured.
This incident is considered one of the deadliest attacks against civilians in India since the 2008 Mumbai attacks. The group called " Resistance Front", an outfit of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility for the attack. The group stated that the assault was in response to the settlement of non-locals in Kashmir.
India’s Prime Minister cut short his visit to Saudi Arabia, and Indian officials promised to identify and punish those responsible for the attack. Under huge domestic pressure to respond forcefully to the terrorist attacks, New Delhi launched airstrikes against “terrorist” camps identified within Pakistani territory. Conflicting reports from both Indian and Pakistani sources indicated that around 31 people were killed, and many others were injured.
This incident not only escalated the long-standing tensions between the two nuclear-armed South Asian neighbors but also occurred at a time when Pakistan is facing one of its most fragile political, economic, and security situations in recent history.
This short article examines the internal and regional factors behind the current crisis and focuses on potential future scenarios.

• Pakistan’s Fragile and Unstable Internal Conditions
In 2025, Pakistan is grappling with a combination of deep-rooted crises with high inflation, severely depleted foreign reserves, reliance on international loans, and inability to attract foreign investment due to insecurity. Pakistan’s economy is in a state of chronic collapse. This has exacerbated livelihood issues, social instability, and public discontent.
Tensions between the military and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party led by Imran Khan, coupled with political arrests, public protests, and a fractured power structure, have weakened the central government’s authority. This political crisis, largely stemming from the poor performance and incompetence of the current prime minister, has undermined the government's legitimacy and strategic decision-making capacity.
Militant groups such as Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch separatist movements in Balochistan—allegedly finding safe havens in Taliban controlled Afghanistan—frequently carry out attacks against Pakistani forces and installations. These groups have become a serious threat to Pakistan, especially after the deterioration of Pakistan’s relations with the Afghanistan Taliban and the Taliban’s warming ties with India, two countries often accused of funding anti-Pakistan militant groups. These internal threats have heavily occupied Pakistan’s military and intelligence resources and capacities.

• India’s Reaction: A Show of Power
India’s government, led by Narendra Modi, has a record of aggressive responses to terrorist attacks. Under huge domestic pressure to deliver a strong response, Modi authorized “controlled and non-provocative” airstrikes on suspected militant bases inside Pakistan. While such operations are not new in Indo-Pakistani relations, this time they are taking place within a uniquely strategic context.
Currently, India holds superior economic and military strength compared to Pakistan. These strikes have further solidified Modi’s nationalist support base and unified public sentiment.
The global community, especially Western nations, has shown greater understanding and sympathy toward India’s response, given its history with terrorist attacks.
India announced, the airstrikes will be limited to targets on militant bases inside Pakistan, avoiding military and civilian positions. These strikes followed a psychological warfare in the Indian media to assure the public that terrorists are not safe in Pakistan. In addition, sporadic and limited skirmishes may occur along the Line of Control (LoC). Neither country, particularly Pakistan, due to its internal crises, appears unmotivated to enter a full-scale war.
If India’s operations continue deeper into Pakistani territory and Pakistan responds inadequately, Islamabad may be compelled to escalate in order to preserve its national and international image. In such a case, the situation could spiral out of control. Given that both countries possess nuclear weapons, despite India’s declared no-first-use policy, a wider conflict scenario would be extremely dangerous and catastrophic.

• The Role of Foreign Powers
Due to the security ties with both countries, Washington will likely pursue unofficial mediation to prevent escalation. The US Secretary of State has spoken to both the Pakistani Prime Minister and the Indian Minister of External Affairs, urging the need for an immediate de-escalation.
Having security pacts with India and being major suppliers of India’s air defense systems, the UK, France, and Russia are countries that may have more sympathy toward New Delhi. But for China, as Pakistan has a strategic ally with, Beijing is concerned about instability affecting its “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) projects and will likely play a de-escalatory role without taking an openly partisan stance in favor of Pakistan.

With significant investments in Pakistan and large economic ties with India, Gulf nations will seek to pressure both sides toward a return to stability. For this purpose, the Minister of State for Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia and the Iranian Foreign Minister flew to New Delhi on May 08, 2025, as part of a mediatory mission to prevent the conflict from further escalation.

• Conclusion
The current crisis between India and Pakistan, compared to past tensions, is unfolding in a more complex and fragile context.
Pakistan’s political, economic, and security problems, India’s relative rise in power, and shifting regional and international dynamics all reduce the likelihood of a full-scale war. Nevertheless, the risk of proxy conflict and intensified violence in Kashmir remains high.
The only sustainable solution is a regional dialogue framework under United Nations resolutions, with mutual security guarantees and genuine diplomatic efforts to resolve the longstanding disputes—a path that, for now, appears far from reality. The tension between India and Pakistan is unlikely to end soon or easily in a way that would allow them, as neighboring countries, to enjoy good relations. Despite their historical, linguistic, and religious commonalities, these factors have not led to strengthened cooperation between the two nations and governments. The ongoing territorial disputes, the presence of terrorist groups, and extremism in Pakistan remain major obstacles to establishing positive relations between the neighbors. Additionally, the role of regional powers such as China and Russia in fueling proxy wars cannot be overlooked.
Before the outbreak of war between Pakistan and India, Iran first, and later Saudi Arabia, made efforts to prevent the conflict and mediate between the two sides. However, these ef-forts were unsuccessful. As the clashes began and global concern over the war grew, visits by the foreign minister of Iran and the minister of state for foreign affairs of Saudi Arabia to India also failed to ease the tensions. Ultimately, during a long and difficult night, it was the United States that succeeded in convincing both parties to agree to a complete cease-fire. This indicates that the capacity to resolve such conflicts at the regional level still does not exist, and regional powers still lack the diplomatic leverage needed to bring both sides to an agreement. In the end, only the United States was able to broker a full ceasefire be-tween them.