Afghanistan–Pakistan Border Closure, Security Dynamics, and Regional Economic Impacts

Afghanistan, as a landlocked country, has long depended on Pakistan’s Karachi Port for approximately 30–40% of its total trade. Located nearly 480 kilometers from Kabul, Karachi represents the closest major seaport for Afghanistan, offering faster and more cost-effective transportation, supported by established logistics networks and relatively affordable shipping options. This structural dependence has made Afghanistan particularly vulnerable to disruptions along the Pakistan border, which has historically remained a zone of political tension and security instability.
In 2025, Afghanistan’s already fragile economy was severely affected by the prolonged closure of the Afghanistan–Pakistan border. This closure was primarily driven by rising insecurity and deteriorating political relations between Pakistan and the Taliban-led administration in Afghanistan. Terrorist activities carried out by Terik-I-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) along the border significantly escalated tensions, forcing Pakistan to shut down cross-border trade for several months. The economic consequences for Afghanistan were severe. According to World Bank estimates, Afghanistan exports declined by 15%, while imports increased by 5%, expanding the trade deficit from $7.1 billion in the previous year to $8.5 billion. In addition to trade disruptions, inflationary pressures intensified, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 1.2% month over month, reflecting widespread price increases across both food and non-food categories. These outcomes further weakened public welfare and economic stability.
From my perspective, the Taliban were one of the primary drivers behind the border closure and the resulting economic losses suffered by Afghanistan. Rather than prioritizing the economic well-being of the Afghanistan population, the Taliban consistently placed political and financial interests above public welfare. Although the Taliban were initially established with Pakistan’s support, relations between the two sides have steadily deteriorated. As Pakistan reduced its influence, the Taliban reportedly sought alternative sources of political and financial backing, including cooperation with India. Reports suggest that this cooperation, particularly with Indian intelligence, has facilitated Taliban support for the TTP, further destabilizing the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region.
The consequences of this shift have been severe for Pakistan’s internal security. The TTP has carried out repeated and deadly attacks against Pakistani security forces in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan, resulting in the deaths of many Pakistani soldiers. These attacks have intensified the conflict between Pakistan and the Taliban, compelling Pakistan to adopt military responses to defend its borders while the Taliban continues consolidating power within Afghanistan with foreign backing. This evolving conflict has transformed the border region into a persistent security hotspot with broader regional implications.
Beyond direct security concerns, TTP has emerged as a major threat to regional infrastructure and economic development. Its attacks are strategically targeted, particularly against the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Valued at over $600 billion, CPEC is one of the most ambitious infrastructure and economic initiatives in South Asia, designed to enhance Pakistan’s economy through improved trade connectivity, transportation networks, and energy infrastructure. However, the corridor passes through volatile regions where the TTP maintains operational capacity. By attacking construction sites, logistics hubs, and security personnel, TTP deliberately disrupts project implementation, raises operational costs, and undermines investor confidence, placing billions of dollars in regional investments at risk.
These attacks are reportedly supported indirectly by external actors, including alleged coordination with Indian intelligence, which has amplified the TTP’s operational capabilities. From my viewpoint, these actions are not random acts of violence but calculated efforts to weaken Pakistan’s security, obstruct economic development, and hinder regional connectivity, particularly projects central to CPEC’s success. As a result, the combined effects of Taliban-TTP collaboration, border instability, and foreign interference have created a complex and highly dangerous security environment.
In conclusion, Afghanistan continues to suffer from trade disruptions, inflation, and economic instability as a direct consequence of border closures and governance failures. At the same time, Pakistan faces persistent security threats and targeted attacks on its forces and infrastructure, while critical regional projects such as CPEC remain under constant threat. This situation illustrates how insurgent activity, geopolitical rivalry, and fragile governance intersect, producing consequences that are not only strategic in nature but also profoundly economic, affecting billions of dollars in investment and threatening the long-term stability of South Asia.